Of all the polls I read on a weekly basis, I tend to trust the Quinnipiac Poll. Headlines from the latest Quinnipiac Poll all focus on Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 4 points. These headlines are meant for folks who do not read polls nor understand their significance. The Latest Quinnipiac poll is great news for Donald Trump, terrible news for Hillary Clinton, and even worse news for the Libertarians and the intrepid malcontents in the #NeverTrump movement.
It’s not all good news for Donald Trump.
Yes, it is true that Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump within the margin of error in this latest Quinnipiac Poll. 80% of Democrats would be proud or satisfied with Hillary Clinton as their nominee. 69% of Republicans would be proud or satisfied with Trump as their nominee. 69% percent of Democrats would be proud or satisfied with Bernie Sanders as their nominee.
It is also true that Democrats are more satisfied with Hillary Clinton as their nominee than Republicans are with Donald Trump. Libertarian Establishment nominee Gary Johnson is also pulling twice as many voters away from the Republican Party (4%) than from the Democrat Party (2%). However, the rest of the data seems to favor Trumps’ ascendancy. How voters feel about their candidates only matter if there is enough enthusiasm to get voters out to the polls in November.
42% of Republicans are more excited about this election than previous elections (a strong turnout indicator). 29% of Democrats and only 25% of independents are more excited about this election than previous elections. Getting out the vote will be easier for the Republicans, if they can hold themselves together through the summer, than for the Democrats. Frankly, Independents will be less likely to vote in this election than in previous elections, giving Donald Trump a huge advantage over Clinton or Johnson in November.
Furthermore, if the election were held today, 6% of Democrats say that they would vote for Donald Trump, while 4% of Republicans say they would vote for Hillary Clinton. This more than makes up for the 2-1 libertarian drain on the Republican and Democrat base. I believe that Donald Trump needs at least 8% of Democrats to win the general election, but he’s almost there. After Bernie Sanders is defeated, I believe Trump jumps from 6 to 8% of Democrat crossovers in November.
As much as the media is running stories about folks who hate Donald Trump, this poll demonstrates that, on average, folks hate Hillary Clinton more. Donald Trumps’ strongly unfavorables fall at 53%, while 55% say they have a strongly unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton.
Hating a candidate is just as much of a motivation to get folks out to the polls as loving a candidate – and more Americans seem to hate Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump.
For the #NeverTrump crowd, there is some seriously disturbing news. 83% of Americans don’t even know who Gary Johnson is. 87% of Americans don’t know who Jill Stein is. What’s worse, the only people who know who Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are young people who’s votes have been historically unreliable. There simply is no third party candidate capable of swinging this election. It’s going to come down to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
While more Americans may say that they intend to vote for Hillary Clinton than for Donald Trump, it seems evident that more Republicans will show up to the polls than Democrats. These numbers can certainly change. Donald Trump has a big mouth and could further erode his Republican support.
Donald Trump is his own worst enemy, too prideful to court those who did not support him from the beginning. However, if he is capable of courting others, he has a very real chance of winning in November. Trump supporters should take note and stop mocking and berating everyone who doesn’t love Trump. Trump can win. You just have to get those Independents and Republicans still angry with him (and rightfully so) to feel less antagonistic toward him and his supporters. I believe Trump supporters will make or break this campaign. Reach out to others and you win. Berate them and you lose.