While the mainstream media still seems perplexed by Trumps popularity and continues to puzzle over what it considers to be the real story, the rise of Marco Rubio, Donald Trump is poised to win yet another State in Nevada.
Trumps ability to acquire support within every faction of the Republican Party has proven to be a remarkable advantage in a crowded field. Political common sense, however, tells us that as the field narrows, Trumps ability to win States outright all but disappears. Donald Trump has publicly disagreed, arguing after his victory in South Carolina, that Trump, not Rubio or Cruz, will pick up the supporters of the fallen candidates. Nevada should give us an indication of whether or not he’s right.
Trump’s support appears to be a staunch 35% of Republicans and Independents. These numbers do not seem to shrink or grow regardless of what happens politically. With Jeb Bush dropping out of the race, we’ll learn in Nevada, who is most likely to pick up those establishment votes. If Trump hovers around 35% in Nevada, that’s not a good sign for the billionaire playboy from New York, but if he reaches 40%, then there is a great deal of reason to worry.
A second story revolves around Senator Marco Rubio and Senator Ted Cruz. They essentially tied in New Hampshire and South Carolina and neither one seems to have been able to pull away from the other. Will the departure of Jeb Bush add 8% to Marco Rubio in Nevada? If so, the Nevada results may well look like this: Donald Trump at 35%, Marco Rubio at 30%, Ted Cruz at 22%, Kasich at 9%, and Carson at 4%. If this is the case, Super Tuesday could be the last chance Ted Cruz has to make his case to the American People that he, not Marco Rubio, is best positioned to take down Donald Trump.
Rubio desperately needs more momentum going into Super Tuesday and a decisive second place finish in Nevada would certainly provide him that momentum. However, if Rubio and Cruz split Bush’s supporters, and we see yet another tie for second place in Nevada, Cruz’s advantage in the Southern States could be enough to help him walk away from Super Tuesday with more delegates than Rubio.
It is clear that so long as Rubio and Cruz both remain in the picture, Donald Trump will continue to win State after State. Over the next two week, one of these candidates will have to suspend their campaign. If it’s Rubio, the vast majority of his supporters will get behind Cruz. If it’s Cruz, we could see a split, with Rubio taking half and Trump taking half. Whatever happens, we’ll know a heck of a lot more by March 2nd – and these candidates will need to make some difficult decisions at that time.