In the most recent Quinnipiac Poll, Donald Trump again demonstrates his broad appeal across every segment of the Republican Party. Still leading nationally with 28%, Trump has drawn his support equally from TEA Party, Evangelicals, Moderates, as well as “very” and “somewhat” conservative voters. 28% of those who identify as TEA Party support the Donald. 22% of Evangelicals, 27% of very conservative, 28% of somewhat conservative, and 28% of moderate to liberal Republicans support the Trump candidacy.
However, despite Donald Trump’s appeal across the Republican Party, he also sports the highest unfavorables amongst registered voters at 59%. Amongst Republicans, 30% have an unfavorable opinion of the real estate mogul. 28% of Republicans say that they will not support Donald Trump. These unfavorables likely exist for the same reason as Trump’s popularity and appeal. Trump has repeatedly attacked Hillary Clinton as well as his fellow Republican candidates, creating a great deal of resentment with supporters of these other candidates’ campaigns.
Senator Ted Cruz now appears to be Donald Trumps’ stiffest competition with 24% support. While Cruz trails Trump with moderate and liberal Republican voters, he leads Trump with 38% of Tea Party support, 33% of Evangelicals, and 38% of very conservative voters. Cruz only draws 20% support with somewhat conservative voters and 15% of moderate to liberal Republicans.
With all registered voters, 35% say they have a favorable opinion of the Senator, while 33% hold an unfavorable opinion. Amongst Republicans, however, Ted Cruz leads all other candidates with 68% of GOP voters saying they hold a favorable opinion and only 7% saying they hold an unfavorable opinion. Ted Cruz leads all other Republican candidates with only 5% of Republican voters claiming that they would not support him.
What these numbers demonstrate is that Donald Trump has no room to grow his base. His supporters are firm and unlikely to jump ship, but he is highly unlikely to pick up any new support going foward. These are the same numbers we saw in October and November and do not appear likely to change.
The other two top tier candidates, Rubio and Carson, have dropped to 12 and 10% respectively.
If the momentum of the last three months are an indication of what’s to come, Senator Cruz appears poised to grab a firm hold on Iowa and most of the early voting States. It also appears that the majority of moderate to liberal Republicans will support either Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio, depending on whichever one has the best showing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.