Donald Trumps’ Appeal Across GOP Likely Not Enough to Win

In the most recent Quinnipiac Poll, Donald Trump again demonstrates his broad appeal across every segment of the Republican Party. Still leading nationally with 28%, Trump has drawn his support equally from TEA Party, Evangelicals, Moderates, as well as “very” and “somewhat” conservative voters. 28% of those who identify as TEA Party support the Donald. 22% of Evangelicals, 27% of very conservative, 28% of somewhat conservative, and 28% of moderate to liberal Republicans support the Trump candidacy.

However, despite Donald Trump’s appeal across the Republican Party, he also sports the highest unfavorables amongst registered voters at 59%. Amongst Republicans, 30% have an unfavorable opinion of the real estate mogul. 28% of Republicans say that they will not support Donald Trump. These unfavorables likely exist for the same reason as Trump’s popularity and appeal. Trump has repeatedly attacked Hillary Clinton as well as his fellow Republican candidates, creating a great deal of resentment with supporters of these other candidates’ campaigns.

Senator Ted Cruz now appears to be Donald Trumps’ stiffest competition with 24% support. While Cruz trails Trump with moderate and liberal Republican voters, he leads Trump with 38% of Tea Party support, 33% of Evangelicals, and 38% of very conservative voters. Cruz only draws 20% support with somewhat conservative voters and 15% of moderate to liberal Republicans.

With all registered voters, 35% say they have a favorable opinion of the Senator, while 33% hold an unfavorable opinion. Amongst Republicans, however, Ted Cruz leads all other candidates with 68% of GOP voters saying they hold a favorable opinion and only 7% saying they hold an unfavorable opinion. Ted Cruz leads all other Republican candidates with only 5% of Republican voters claiming that they would not support him.

What these numbers demonstrate is that Donald Trump has no room to grow his base. His supporters are firm and unlikely to jump ship, but he is highly unlikely to pick up any new support going foward. These are the same numbers we saw in October and November and do not appear likely to change.

The other two top tier candidates, Rubio and Carson, have dropped to 12 and 10% respectively.

If the momentum of the last three months are an indication of what’s to come, Senator Cruz appears poised to grab a firm hold on Iowa and most of the early voting States. It also appears that the majority of moderate to liberal Republicans will support either Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio, depending on whichever one has the best showing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

 

 

About Steven Brodie Tucker 178 Articles
Graduated From Virginia Tech with a Bachelors in Philosophy and a minor in Psychology. Studied Economics and History at George Mason University. Caroline County Resident and Activist.
  • Reinhardt Reganbacker lll

    With Cruz’s wife being one of the top people at Goldman Sach’s, and where the Cruz campaign/PAC money is coming from, I just don’t get it.

    I believe Cruz and his wife are multi-millionaires, who went to Harvard and found out the easy way to get rich is via political cronyism. Thus the Bush campaign/White House. Do you think she got her job by just walking in the door at Goldman and applying?

    I see no hope in any of the candidates from either party, with possibly one exception. My research spells Cruz the same as Bush, Clnton, Rubio, Carson, Fiorina, etc.. Their names are all spelled the same, ESTABLISHMENT.

    Please, don’t be fooled be Cruz. Do your homework.

    • You aren’t basing your suspicions on knowledge.

      Are you instead backing a man who has been buying favors from both politics establishments and has never lifted a finger for the little guy?

      • Reinhardt Reganbacker lll

        Two things, first I was not thinking of Trump as the possible exception.

        Second, what did I write concerning Cruz that is not 100% correct, and easy to verify?

        • You didn’t say anything, really, you merely implied.

          • Reinhardt Reganbacker lll

            What part do you believe to be incorrect, perhaps I can supply a link?

          • Let’s start with the inference that Mrs. Cruz did not get her job on the basis of merit.

          • Reinhardt Reganbacker lll

            No matter how she got the job, she is owned by Goldman Sach’s, is she not? You are not naive enough to believe people just walk in and apply for those jobs are you?

          • The system is corrupt, but not absolutely. I have to see more than just, oh they work for this company, or oh, they’re a politician, to condemn someone.

          • Reinhardt Reganbacker lll

            Then where is Cruz getting his clean money? Is this clean money? You take their money and they own you. Where is anybody going to get the $1.5 Billion to run for Pres “cleanly”?

            http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2015/04/ted-cruz-super-pac-donor-robert-mercer

          • He’s raising more money from people like me, lower middle and middle class, than anyone.

          • Reinhardt Reganbacker lll

            Let me tell you something . It is virtually impossible to get even a decent blue collar job these days without knowing someone. In my opinion to get a good county, state, or federal job, you must have a sponsor.

            Why do you think people go to Harvard? Because of the friendships that lead to good future jobs and contacts for the future with the Ivy League crowd. How do you think Cruz and his wife got into the Bush organization? You think that they just knocked on the door?

            Oh, you think the educational aspect is the reason for going to Ivy League schools? Don’t kid yourself.

            Why do you think most people work for political campaigns? To develope connections, that is why. Connections lead to jobs and influence, equals money.

            Don’t be stupid, it’s all corrupt. There is no gain for me to lie to you, none what so ever.

          • These are the reasons I don’t work in politics or government… However, don’t be so cynical as to think 100% of these guys are corrupt. I’ve found Mike Lee (by far my favorite Republican), Ted Cruz and Rand Paul to be patriots. They aren’t making friends. They are making enemies of the very corrupt people you and I can’t stand.

          • Also, the Bush people hated Cruz. What does the fact that he worked on that campaign tell you?

          • Reinhardt Reganbacker lll

            Cruz worked in the Bush Campaign/admin for 4 years, which is where he met his wife, according to everything I can find.

          • And what truths are you driving from this?

          • Reinhardt Reganbacker lll

            I believe Cruz is 100% establishment, nothing else.

  • MICHAEL MILLARD

    Why don’t they show us the actual poll?